Yiaga Africa reveals high voter intent for 2027 elections, though insecurity and distrust threaten actual turnout.
A new national survey conducted in September 2026 by Yiaga Africa has revealed that 84 per cent of Nigerians are likely to participate in the upcoming 2027 general elections. The research involved 2,470 respondents aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, combining telephone and face-to-face interviews, according to information published by punchng.
Despite the high willingness to vote, the report highlights that only 47 per cent of citizens are very likely to cast their ballots. Analysts point out that low turnout in the country is primarily a conversion problem driven by fear, distrust, and financial factors rather than sheer voter apathy among the population.
The findings serve as a critical wake-up call for civil society organizations, political parties, and election management bodies. With the presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027, stakeholders face mounting pressure to address systemic barriers before eligible citizens head to the polling units.
Insecurity and Fear as Major Barriers
The National Voting Intentions Survey 3.0 identified widespread security concerns as the leading threat to the electoral process. Around 82 per cent of respondents expressed worry that insecurity could negatively impact the 2027 polls, while 61 per cent stated that the fear of violence might prevent them from voting.
Hussaini Abdu, the Chairman of the Board of Trustees at Yiaga Africa, emphasized that political parties must actively mobilize their members to fulfill their civic duties. He noted that it is unacceptable for over 100 million registered voters to yield a meager 27 per cent turnout, similar to the figures recorded during the 2023 elections.
Declining Trust in INEC and the Judiciary
Confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission has dropped significantly, falling from 45 per cent in earlier survey rounds to 34 per cent in the latest edition. However, 49 per cent of participants expressed trust in the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the IReV result transmission portal.
Skepticism extends heavily toward the legal system, with 63 per cent of citizens lacking confidence that the judiciary will resolve electoral disputes fairly. In the South-South region, this lack of trust spikes dramatically to 81 per cent, posing a severe challenge to post-election credibility.
Recommendations for Credible Elections
To safeguard the electoral process, Yiaga Africa issued several strategic recommendations for the Federal Government, security agencies, and election officials. Ezenwa Nwagwu, Executive Director of the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa, advised INEC to under-promise and over-perform to manage public expectations effectively.
The organization specifically urged security agencies to publish a threat-based national election security plan by November 2026. Furthermore, they called on the judiciary to resolve pre-election candidacy disputes before ballot papers are printed to prevent further complications.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of Nigerians are willing to vote in 2027?
A survey by Yiaga Africa shows that 84 per cent of Nigerians are likely to vote in the 2027 general elections, though only 47 per cent are very likely to participate.
What are the main barriers to voter turnout in Nigeria?
The primary obstacles preventing citizens from reaching the ballot box include widespread insecurity, fear of electoral violence, distrust in institutions, and financial factors.
How do Nigerians view INEC and the judiciary?
Confidence in INEC dropped to 34 per cent, while 63 per cent of respondents expressed little or no trust in the judiciary to fairly resolve electoral disputes.
